Abstract
Conflict or Accommodation? An analysis of the Transition to Multiparty System in Egypt and the Political Strategies of the Muslim Brotherhood
This thesis analyses political obstacles to democratic consolidation in Egypt with focus on the experiences of political liberalisation and establishment of a multiparty system in Egypt and the integration of the Islamist "mainstream" opposition.
The study seeks to establish a historical, contingent approach to the problems involved, in which the development of "Islamism" as an ideology and political strategy as well as the development of a semi-democratic multiparty system, are analysed in its specific historical, Egyptian context in.
Drawing on central contributions in institutionalist and rationalist democratic theory the study starts its empirical analyses with a rather detailed examination of the transition from the Nasserist singleparty state to the multiparty system established by Sadat, with emphasis on the actors (elite, mass) and strategies (co-operation, conflict) involved, and the institutional outcome thus produced. As I argue, this institutional "outcome" of regime transition establishes the long term rules of the (semi-) democratic interplay out of which a further consolidation of democracy may or may not emerge, on basis of the "chances" for political influence it offers to the respective relevant actors. Given a stable (neutral) institutional framework, the actor s resources (organisation, support, money) yields his ability to exercise influence in a democratic framework.
Turning to the Islamist opposition, it is theorised that not only the "chances" provided for voicing preferences and protecting interests determine an actor s willingness to comply with the procedures and outcomes of democracy, but also the "values" (ideology) attached to democratic versus non-democratic frameworks. Thus, one chapter examines the Muslim Brotherhood s founding ideology, with emphasis on those aspects of it most relevant for the issues at hand; democracy and multipartyism.
However, it is a central assumption of this thesis, and the theory on which it draws its inspiration, that "chances" and "values" are not mutually independent categories. On the contrary, political values or preferences are formed, it is argued, by experiences, indoctrination, and learning. On basis of the "chances" given by the transition process, and the "values" given by the Brotherhood s classic ideologues, in the final chapter I turn to the interaction between these two, focusing on the Brotherhood s strategies towards the political field since they were permitted to resume public activities in the early 1970s after nearly twenty years of harsh Nasserist repression, emphasising the elections held in the 1980s and 90s under president Mubarak.
The study concludes that while Egypt s "mainstream" Islamists may not have become "liberal democrats" in a Western sense, stressing social moral values rather than individual liberties in their political rhetoric, evidence are fairly clear that they have adopted the principles of institutional democracy - multipartyism, power exchange, accountability, elections and consider themselves a "party among parties". Rather, it is the regime and its ruling party that have undermined confidence and stability of democratic institutions through well-documented election fraud and interference, and disrespect for democratic processes both in national elections and civil society institutions.