Forecasting the continued naturalization of widely planted alien conifers: On Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis) in Norway
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- Naturhistorisk museum [748]
- CRIStin høstingsarkiv [30840]
Abstract
Imported plants frequently spread from where they are planted — forestry conifers being a prime example. A particular species may spread rapidly into many ecosystems across a large area, or its spread may be more gradual and confined. For species that have just begun to spread, it is crucial to know where they will move, and how fast. To make these forecasts, we can look at where the species occurs in its home range, and observe the early stages of naturalization in the introduced range. The home range reveals broad environmental constraints on the species’ spatial distribution, while the introduced range manifests the fine-scale processes underpinning the expansion. But the forecasts will only be good if the inferences are made carefully, this thesis finds. The thesis: (1) introduces software that isolates important environmental constraints from spurious ones, (2) presents a method to handle spatial bias in occurrence data, (3) quantifies spread into ecosystems with unequal levels of exposure, and (4) identifies current bottlenecks that could release populations from their observed trajectories. Sitka spruce in Norway serves as the motivating case throughout.List of papers
Paper I Vollering, J., Halvorsen, R. and Mazzoni, S. “The MIAmaxent R package: Variable transformation and model selection for species distribution models”. In: Ecology and Evolution. Vol. 9, no. 21 (2019), pp. 12051–12068. An author version is included in the thesis. The published version is available at: https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.5654 |
Paper II Vollering, J., Halvorsen, R., Auestad, I. and Rydgren, K. “Bunching up the background betters bias in species distribution models”. In: Ecography. Vol. 42, no. 10 (2019), pp. 1717–1727. An author version is included in the thesis. The published version is available at: https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.04503 |
Paper III Vollering, J., Olsen, S. L., Skarpaas, O., Appelgren, L., Kyrkjeeide, M. O., Often, A., Sandven, J., Stabbetorp, O. and Sørhuus, Ø. “Accounting for seed rain and other confounders reveals which ecosystems are most susceptible to alien conifer establishment”. To be published. The paper is removed from the thesis in DUO awaiting publishing. |
Paper IV Vollering, J., Jongejans, E., Auestad, I. and Rydgren, K. “The cost of delayed Sitka spruce removal, in terms of naturalized seedlings, depends strongly on cone production”. establishment”. To be published. The paper is removed from the thesis in DUO awaiting publishing. |
Appendix to paper I. The appendix is included in the thesis in DUO. |
Appendix to paper II. The appendix is included in the thesis in DUO. |
Appendix to paper III. The appendix is removed from the thesis in DUO awaiting publishing. |
Appendix to paper IV. The appendix is removed from the thesis in DUO awaiting publishing. |